WC3 - NiceGameTV League

This one is a bit risky, but I feel I have some pretty decent backing in the stats. Who will get the first hero-kill between Sky and Lyn on the first map in their NiceGameTV League?

Now, the map isn't known yet, so in that way the odds might turn out pretty bad, but based on the overall map-pool it looks good for Lyn. The last matches between the two were at Blizzard World Wide Invitational, where they played out a three-mapper.

On Twisted Meadows and Secret Valley, Lyn's BladeMasters made no mistakes as he took down the AM and MK. On Echo Isles Lyn picked up the Panda to try and take Sky's expo down quickly. He was quickly stunned and surrounded though, and Sky took the first hero-kill in that game.

This bet is not bulletproof, but usually the BladeMaster will be able to take down an opponents hero before their 2nd hero is coming out. If the first map isn't going to be SV or EI, Sky would probably use AM as his first, thus it is unrealistic that he will get the first herokill. I'd say that the overall probability of Lyn taking the first herokill is somewhat around 60/40, maybe even 70/30 if MK isn't first hero by Sky.

The odds on Lyn is 1.85, giving plenty of space for a good valuebet here.