Articles

28th February 2008, 12:15

NGL-One Playoffs: The Statistics


With the conclusion of NGL-One playoffs, myMYM.com guest columnist United State- grancalc have compiled the statistics and have produced an article, highlighting the most interesting facets of the entire tournament held last weekend.

 
Undead UndeadNightelves Night ElfOrc OrcHuman Human
Nightelves 9:0 - 100%Undead 0:9 - 0%Undead 4:3 - 57% Undead 1:2 - 33%
Human 2:1 - 67% Orc 3:1 - 75%Nightelves 1:3 - 25%Nightelves 0:1 - 0%
Orc 3:4 - 43% Human 1:0 - 100% Human 2:0 - 100%Orc 0:2 - 0%

9 Mirrors Played:
UD: 5
NE: 3
OR: 1
HU: 0


Most notably, UD went 100% against NE at this event and, as expected, had a losing record against OR. NE, meanwhile, aside from a glaring donut in the win column against UD, had a winning record against OR, which should be no surprise to anyone.

Patch 1.22 - Is it really necessary?

To someone on the sidelines, it might seem that WC3 at the competitive level has reached a sort of RPS (rock-paper-scissors) balance. Is it really worth patching the game now and changing the way we play WC3 when the meta-game has changed so profoundly in recent times?

I'd like to see how the top players deal with some of the things we've seen, to see the game further evolve, but provided that the 1.22 patch comes out within a month, it looks like that won't be happening. When the patch is finally released, the game at the highest levels of competitive play could change substantially, or it could only change minutely.

Even though we can theorize on paper all we want based on any information we know about proposed or final changes, it doesn't really matter. We won't know for sure how the patch will impact the game until enough time has passed, and even then, we may not know for sure its final impact until a year or two later (hopefully WC3 will still be around and in a big way by then).

Rock-paper-scissors vs Warcraft 3

However, the reality of the situation is, this RPS sort of balance is subject to question because true racial balance is the real concern. The most we can say is that this RPS balance has been demonstrated at an iron man-style event. Who's to say it applies to a best-of-3 or best-of-5 format, where players have more time to study and prepare for their opponents and have time to devise counters between games? And who's to say this wasn't a one-time thing? Maybe something like this won't happen again, or maybe it will, though we probably won't get the chance to find out when the patch is released.

Still, the fact that UD did not drop a single game against NE is astounding, and against three of the current best and still active NE players. Will that racial dominance continue into other events? Will the new strategies and tactics unveiled at the finals cascade down to the rest of the competitive UD players, and will they be able to incorporate them successfully? We can only wait and see, and I'm excited to find out.

 Next Page : Appendix 

 
Comments (14)

 

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(last year)  #1 grancalc
grancalc
To all readers:
First of all, I'd like to thank Wind for giving this his blessing, and I hope everyone here finds it interesting. I originally put together this article moments after the NGL-ONE S4 Finals concluded, and we know that hours later MYM & SK played their WC3L PD5 matches. During that clan match, NE beat UD in both instances (Moon def. ReiGn 2-0, SoJu def. Lucifer 2-0).

Second, sorry if I was ignorant in my opinions or anything else I said. When I first started writing this, I only wanted to see how the races fared against each other, and to show that one major aspect missing from the professional WC3 scene is a single or major database/source with statistics on race match-ups all-time, at specific events, online, on LAN, for each patch, etc., akin to the TLPD (Team Liquid Pro Database) for StarCraft. I'd like to be able to click on a player's profile, see his/her finishes as it relates to prize money at major events, see his/her overall win-loss record and against each race, and so on. Not only would it be a comprehensive source for fans, commentators and writers could get significant use out of it. It would be one heck of a project to undertake, though.

"The secret of being boring is to say everything." -Voltaire
(last year)  #2 The1Crow
The1Crow
Interesting overview!
Some ppl come into our lives and quickly go. Some stay ever!
(last year)  #3 4KFmatthe
matthe
This statistic is not that good because it includes only about 20 matches... there should be at least 500...

"I only believe in statistics that I doctored myself." xD Churchill ftw

Nevertheless its a nice article xD

╦╦╦╦╦╦╦ The fence of the Ancients ╦╦╦╦╦╦╦
(last year)  #4 Folko
Folko
good reading
fx
(last year)  #5 losemann
losemann
This is really interessting, but the NGL is BO1! Which means this in a BO3 would have been different.
Thanks wind, this is a really nice overview

[www.losemann.asia] - my blog
(last year)  #6 bootsarehax
 
well, i think that those stats show up to nearly nothing. considering the low amount of games, the bo1 system, the distribution of players on races (1 human...) and the fact that nearly all games have been played on maps that the seeded player considered "good" for his race.

i'm wondering why u haven't done something more meaningfull while u were at it. i.e. 30 games per match-up per map with at least 5 different players for the two races over some estimated time period~ just a suggestion. keep up the work : )

edit: u have pointed out that we do not know how the patch will affect the game and that "paperwork" has no point in the end. i don't think this is entirely true: they could show us in which way the game _should_ change.
Last edited by bootsarehax at 29.02.2008, 02:57
(last year)  #7 4KFPuncho_13
Puncho_13
Nice read.
LIVE TO WIN
(last year)  #8 Meibas
Meibas
nice read but like mat sad it's bo1 :D and u can chose who to play vs what race :) It's not ect fair statistic
(last year)  #9 koprom
 
RPS is interesting in NGL-ONE tournament style but in normal tournaments (not team leagues) its just unfair and boring if one always has to pick Rock (Orc) and the other one always Scissors (UD).

Boring with RPS and unfair (and sometimes boring too) in WC3.
(last year)  #10 SpaNkinG
SpaNkinG
IS A PATCH NECASSARY !?!?!?
U DIDN'T CHECKED UD ELF MU ?:O
Or look at hu
only red numbers:P
Last edited by SpaNkinG at 29.02.2008, 18:51
(last year)  #11 TemplaR
TemplaR
So Human < All?
Hmm..

You have to live before you die young. (Ghost of Perdition)
(last year)  #12 charm
 
nice read
(last year)  #13 SpaNkinG
SpaNkinG
#11 it was just Rainbow who isn#t that good copared to others!
And ToD playing 24/7DotA
(last year)  #14 Meitre
 
nice read

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